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For a brief period, Trump seemed to take a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer in case Putin persisted blocking truce talks, Trump finally enacted major restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly affected Putin's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European involvement, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in danger. Despite bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the initiative effectively undermine that essential sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business experience, the former president seems to treat the war as a basic territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will please the leader. But, Putin's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged region of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the responsible government that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in place the presently separated regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been failed to seize in over a ten years of warfare, this surrender would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, providing Putin a clear way to the capital should he subsequently opt to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal imposes no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "All radical ideology and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no requirement that Putin risk his regime by holding votes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should we trust Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on external security guarantees. Although the plan threatens a "decisive unified military response" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics include fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the security presence, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened forces, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. However in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not