Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”